The world was, from a certain angle, getting on reasonably well. Not perfectly. Humans being humans — squabbling kids, some of us with knives, arrows, spears, and long-range drones that kill from afar. Nothing new. Very animal-like in our ways of the jungle.
But we had done something. Sixty years of European integration. The most extraordinary peace project in human history — built by people who had actually seen what the alternative looked like, from the inside, at close range, with their own families in the rubble.
And now Franklin Templeton is publishing a piece called "Security Spending Enters a Super Cycle" and telling its investors to buy defence stocks because the world is going to need a lot more weapons.
That is not analysis. That is a product pitch. And the product is fear.
The numbers are extraordinary. European defence budgets racing toward 3.5%–5% of GDP. Germany alone planning €100 billion annually by 2029. European defence companies delivering 401% shareholder return since 2022. A super cycle. A bonanza. An extraordinary transfer of public wealth into private hands, justified by a security logic that has a very long and very bloody track record of where it leads.
The last two times Europe mobilised like this, the wars were internal. The enemy was the neighbour. The continent destroyed itself from within. And the people who rebuilt it knew — with the specific knowledge of people who had lived through it — that the only path was integration, not armament.
That knowledge is still alive. Just. But the gravity is very strong and the shareholder returns are very good and nobody is asking the obvious question: what are we not building while we build this?